中國版巴塞爾協(xié)議III對房地產(chǎn)貸款影響大,銀行讓利房貸一族或添動力

Notice (8): SplFileObject::fwrite(): write of 14 bytes failed with errno=28 No space left on device [CORE/Cake/Cache/Engine/FileEngine.php, line 142]

Code Context


        $this->_File->rewind();
        $success = $this->_File->ftruncate(0) && $this->_File->fwrite($contents) && $this->_File->fflush();

$key = 'myapp_cake_model_default_91rp_com_news'
$data = 'N;'
$duration = (int) 10
$lineBreak = ''
$expires = (int) 1750765816
$contents = '1750765816
N;
'

SplFileObject::fwrite() - [internal], line ??
FileEngine::write() - CORE/Cake/Cache/Engine/FileEngine.php, line 142
Cache::write() - CORE/Cake/Cache/Cache.php, line 317
DataSource::_cacheDescription() - CORE/Cake/Model/Datasource/DataSource.php, line 310
DataSource::describe() - CORE/Cake/Model/Datasource/DataSource.php, line 135
Mysql::describe() - CORE/Cake/Model/Datasource/Database/Mysql.php, line 341
Model::schema() - CORE/Cake/Model/Model.php, line 1397
Model::getColumnType() - CORE/Cake/Model/Model.php, line 1438
DboSource::_parseKey() - CORE/Cake/Model/Datasource/DboSource.php, line 2944
DboSource::conditionKeysToString() - CORE/Cake/Model/Datasource/DboSource.php, line 2890
DboSource::conditions() - CORE/Cake/Model/Datasource/DboSource.php, line 2771
DboSource::buildStatement() - CORE/Cake/Model/Datasource/DboSource.php, line 2053
DboSource::buildAssociationQuery() - CORE/Cake/Model/Datasource/DboSource.php, line 1771
DboSource::read() - CORE/Cake/Model/Datasource/DboSource.php, line 1224
Model::_readDataSource() - CORE/Cake/Model/Model.php, line 3053
Model::find() - CORE/Cake/Model/Model.php, line 3025
NewsController::detail() - APP/Controller/NewsController.php, line 54
ReflectionMethod::invokeArgs() - [internal], line ??

Notice (8): SplFileObject::fwrite() [<a href='http://php.net/splfileobject.fwrite'>splfileobject.fwrite</a>]: write of 43 bytes failed with errno=28 No space left on device [CORE/Cake/Cache/Engine/FileEngine.php, line 142]

Code Context


        $this->_File->rewind();
        $success = $this->_File->ftruncate(0) && $this->_File->fwrite($contents) && $this->_File->fflush();

$key = 'myapp_cake_core_cake_dev_zh-cn'
$data = 'a:1:{s:11:"LC_MESSAGES";a:0:{}}'
$duration = (int) 10
$lineBreak = ''
$expires = (int) 1750765816
$contents = '1750765816
a:1:{s:11:"LC_MESSAGES";a:0:{}}
'

SplFileObject::fwrite() - [internal], line ??
FileEngine::write() - CORE/Cake/Cache/Engine/FileEngine.php, line 142
Cache::write() - CORE/Cake/Cache/Cache.php, line 317
I18n::translate() - CORE/Cake/I18n/I18n.php, line 240
__d - CORE/Cake/basics.php, line 636
Cache::write() - CORE/Cake/Cache/Cache.php, line 325
DataSource::_cacheDescription() - CORE/Cake/Model/Datasource/DataSource.php, line 310
DataSource::describe() - CORE/Cake/Model/Datasource/DataSource.php, line 135
Mysql::describe() - CORE/Cake/Model/Datasource/Database/Mysql.php, line 341
Model::schema() - CORE/Cake/Model/Model.php, line 1397
Model::getColumnType() - CORE/Cake/Model/Model.php, line 1438
DboSource::_parseKey() - CORE/Cake/Model/Datasource/DboSource.php, line 2944
DboSource::conditionKeysToString() - CORE/Cake/Model/Datasource/DboSource.php, line 2890
DboSource::conditions() - CORE/Cake/Model/Datasource/DboSource.php, line 2771
DboSource::buildStatement() - CORE/Cake/Model/Datasource/DboSource.php, line 2053
DboSource::buildAssociationQuery() - CORE/Cake/Model/Datasource/DboSource.php, line 1771
DboSource::read() - CORE/Cake/Model/Datasource/DboSource.php, line 1224
Model::_readDataSource() - CORE/Cake/Model/Model.php, line 3053

Warning (512): _cake_core_ cache was unable to write 'cake_dev_zh-cn' to File cache [CORE/Cake/Cache/Cache.php, line 327]

Code Context

                    static::$_engines[$config]->settings['engine']
                ),
                E_USER_WARNING

$key = 'cake_dev_zh-cn'
$value = array(
	'LC_MESSAGES' => array()
)
$config = '_cake_core_'
$settings = array(
	'engine' => 'File',
	'prefix' => 'myapp_cake_core_',
	'path' => '/home/sites/site_91rp/app/tmp/cache/persistent/',
	'serialize' => true,
	'duration' => (int) 10,
	'lock' => true,
	'isWindows' => false,
	'mask' => (int) 436,
	'probability' => (int) 100,
	'groups' => array()
)
$success = false

Cache::write() - CORE/Cake/Cache/Cache.php, line 327
I18n::translate() - CORE/Cake/I18n/I18n.php, line 240
__d - CORE/Cake/basics.php, line 636
Cache::write() - CORE/Cake/Cache/Cache.php, line 325
DataSource::_cacheDescription() - CORE/Cake/Model/Datasource/DataSource.php, line 310
DataSource::describe() - CORE/Cake/Model/Datasource/DataSource.php, line 135
Mysql::describe() - CORE/Cake/Model/Datasource/Database/Mysql.php, line 341
Model::schema() - CORE/Cake/Model/Model.php, line 1397
Model::getColumnType() - CORE/Cake/Model/Model.php, line 1438
DboSource::_parseKey() - CORE/Cake/Model/Datasource/DboSource.php, line 2944
DboSource::conditionKeysToString() - CORE/Cake/Model/Datasource/DboSource.php, line 2890
DboSource::conditions() - CORE/Cake/Model/Datasource/DboSource.php, line 2771
DboSource::buildStatement() - CORE/Cake/Model/Datasource/DboSource.php, line 2053
DboSource::buildAssociationQuery() - CORE/Cake/Model/Datasource/DboSource.php, line 1771
DboSource::read() - CORE/Cake/Model/Datasource/DboSource.php, line 1224
Model::_readDataSource() - CORE/Cake/Model/Model.php, line 3053
Model::find() - CORE/Cake/Model/Model.php, line 3025

Warning (512): _cake_model_ cache was unable to write 'default_91rp_com_news' to File cache [CORE/Cake/Cache/Cache.php, line 327]

Code Context

                    static::$_engines[$config]->settings['engine']
                ),
                E_USER_WARNING

$key = 'default_91rp_com_news'
$value = null
$config = '_cake_model_'
$settings = array(
	'engine' => 'File',
	'prefix' => 'myapp_cake_model_',
	'path' => '/home/sites/site_91rp/app/tmp/cache/models/',
	'serialize' => true,
	'duration' => (int) 10,
	'lock' => true,
	'isWindows' => false,
	'mask' => (int) 436,
	'probability' => (int) 100,
	'groups' => array()
)
$success = false

Cache::write() - CORE/Cake/Cache/Cache.php, line 327
DataSource::_cacheDescription() - CORE/Cake/Model/Datasource/DataSource.php, line 310
DataSource::describe() - CORE/Cake/Model/Datasource/DataSource.php, line 135
Mysql::describe() - CORE/Cake/Model/Datasource/Database/Mysql.php, line 341
Model::schema() - CORE/Cake/Model/Model.php, line 1397
Model::getColumnType() - CORE/Cake/Model/Model.php, line 1438
DboSource::_parseKey() - CORE/Cake/Model/Datasource/DboSource.php, line 2944
DboSource::conditionKeysToString() - CORE/Cake/Model/Datasource/DboSource.php, line 2890
DboSource::conditions() - CORE/Cake/Model/Datasource/DboSource.php, line 2771
DboSource::buildStatement() - CORE/Cake/Model/Datasource/DboSource.php, line 2053
DboSource::buildAssociationQuery() - CORE/Cake/Model/Datasource/DboSource.php, line 1771
DboSource::read() - CORE/Cake/Model/Datasource/DboSource.php, line 1224
Model::_readDataSource() - CORE/Cake/Model/Model.php, line 3053
Model::find() - CORE/Cake/Model/Model.php, line 3025
NewsController::detail() - APP/Controller/NewsController.php, line 54
ReflectionMethod::invokeArgs() - [internal], line ??
Controller::invokeAction() - CORE/Cake/Controller/Controller.php, line 499

Notice (8): SplFileObject::fwrite() [<a href='http://php.net/splfileobject.fwrite'>splfileobject.fwrite</a>]: write of 1191 bytes failed with errno=28 No space left on device [CORE/Cake/Cache/Engine/FileEngine.php, line 142]

Code Context


        $this->_File->rewind();
        $success = $this->_File->ftruncate(0) && $this->_File->fwrite($contents) && $this->_File->fflush();

$key = 'myapp_cake_model_default_91rp_com_news'
$data = 'a:9:{s:2:"id";a:6:{s:4:"type";s:7:"integer";s:4:"null";b:0;s:7:"default";N;s:6:"length";i:11;s:8:"unsigned";b:0;s:3:"key";s:7:"primary";}s:5:"title";a:7:{s:4:"type";s:6:"string";s:4:"null";b:0;s:7:"default";N;s:6:"length";i:127;s:3:"key";s:5:"index";s:7:"collate";s:15:"utf8_general_ci";s:7:"charset";s:4:"utf8";}s:7:"content";a:6:{s:4:"type";s:4:"text";s:4:"null";b:1;s:7:"default";N;s:6:"length";N;s:7:"collate";s:15:"utf8_general_ci";s:7:"charset";s:4:"utf8";}s:6:"source";a:6:{s:4:"type";s:6:"string";s:4:"null";b:1;s:7:"default";N;s:6:"length";i:31;s:7:"collate";s:15:"utf8_general_ci";s:7:"charset";s:4:"utf8";}s:10:"orig_title";a:6:{s:4:"type";s:6:"string";s:4:"null";b:1;s:7:"default";N;s:6:"length";i:127;s:7:"collate";s:15:"utf8_general_ci";s:7:"charset";s:4:"utf8";}s:12:"publish_time";a:4:{s:4:"type";s:9:"timestamp";s:4:"null";b:1;s:7:"default";N;s:6:"length";N;}s:9:"orig_date";a:4:{s:4:"type";s:4:"date";s:4:"null";b:1;s:7:"default";N;s:6:"length";N;}s:9:"orig_time";a:4:{s:4:"type";s:4:"time";s:4:"null";b:1;s:7:"default";N;s:6:"length";N;}s:6:"status";a:5:{s:4:"type";s:11:"tinyinteger";s:4:"null";b:1;s:7:"default";s:1:"1";s:6:"length";i:4;s:8:"unsigned";b:0;}}'
$duration = (int) 10
$lineBreak = ''
$expires = (int) 1750765816
$contents = '1750765816
a:9:{s:2:"id";a:6:{s:4:"type";s:7:"integer";s:4:"null";b:0;s:7:"default";N;s:6:"length";i:11;s:8:"unsigned";b:0;s:3:"key";s:7:"primary";}s:5:"title";a:7:{s:4:"type";s:6:"string";s:4:"null";b:0;s:7:"default";N;s:6:"length";i:127;s:3:"key";s:5:"index";s:7:"collate";s:15:"utf8_general_ci";s:7:"charset";s:4:"utf8";}s:7:"content";a:6:{s:4:"type";s:4:"text";s:4:"null";b:1;s:7:"default";N;s:6:"length";N;s:7:"collate";s:15:"utf8_general_ci";s:7:"charset";s:4:"utf8";}s:6:"source";a:6:{s:4:"type";s:6:"string";s:4:"null";b:1;s:7:"default";N;s:6:"length";i:31;s:7:"collate";s:15:"utf8_general_ci";s:7:"charset";s:4:"utf8";}s:10:"orig_title";a:6:{s:4:"type";s:6:"string";s:4:"null";b:1;s:7:"default";N;s:6:"length";i:127;s:7:"collate";s:15:"utf8_general_ci";s:7:"charset";s:4:"utf8";}s:12:"publish_time";a:4:{s:4:"type";s:9:"timestamp";s:4:"null";b:1;s:7:"default";N;s:6:"length";N;}s:9:"orig_date";a:4:{s:4:"type";s:4:"date";s:4:"null";b:1;s:7:"default";N;s:6:"length";N;}s:9:"orig_time";a:4:{s:4:"type";s:4:"time";s:4:"null";b:1;s:7:"default";N;s:6:"length";N;}s:6:"status";a:5:{s:4:"type";s:11:"tinyinteger";s:4:"null";b:1;s:7:"default";s:1:"1";s:6:"length";i:4;s:8:"unsigned";b:0;}}
'

SplFileObject::fwrite() - [internal], line ??
FileEngine::write() - CORE/Cake/Cache/Engine/FileEngine.php, line 142
Cache::write() - CORE/Cake/Cache/Cache.php, line 317
DataSource::_cacheDescription() - CORE/Cake/Model/Datasource/DataSource.php, line 310
Mysql::describe() - CORE/Cake/Model/Datasource/Database/Mysql.php, line 383
Model::schema() - CORE/Cake/Model/Model.php, line 1397
Model::getColumnType() - CORE/Cake/Model/Model.php, line 1438
DboSource::_parseKey() - CORE/Cake/Model/Datasource/DboSource.php, line 2944
DboSource::conditionKeysToString() - CORE/Cake/Model/Datasource/DboSource.php, line 2890
DboSource::conditions() - CORE/Cake/Model/Datasource/DboSource.php, line 2771
DboSource::buildStatement() - CORE/Cake/Model/Datasource/DboSource.php, line 2053
DboSource::buildAssociationQuery() - CORE/Cake/Model/Datasource/DboSource.php, line 1771
DboSource::read() - CORE/Cake/Model/Datasource/DboSource.php, line 1224
Model::_readDataSource() - CORE/Cake/Model/Model.php, line 3053
Model::find() - CORE/Cake/Model/Model.php, line 3025
NewsController::detail() - APP/Controller/NewsController.php, line 54
ReflectionMethod::invokeArgs() - [internal], line ??
Controller::invokeAction() - CORE/Cake/Controller/Controller.php, line 499

Warning (512): _cake_model_ cache was unable to write 'default_91rp_com_news' to File cache [CORE/Cake/Cache/Cache.php, line 327]

Code Context

                    static::$_engines[$config]->settings['engine']
                ),
                E_USER_WARNING

$key = 'default_91rp_com_news'
$value = array(
	'id' => array(
		'type' => 'integer',
		'null' => false,
		'default' => null,
		'length' => (int) 11,
		'unsigned' => false,
		'key' => 'primary'
	),
	'title' => array(
		'type' => 'string',
		'null' => false,
		'default' => null,
		'length' => (int) 127,
		'key' => 'index',
		'collate' => 'utf8_general_ci',
		'charset' => 'utf8'
	),
	'content' => array(
		'type' => 'text',
		'null' => true,
		'default' => null,
		'length' => null,
		'collate' => 'utf8_general_ci',
		'charset' => 'utf8'
	),
	'source' => array(
		'type' => 'string',
		'null' => true,
		'default' => null,
		'length' => (int) 31,
		'collate' => 'utf8_general_ci',
		'charset' => 'utf8'
	),
	'orig_title' => array(
		'type' => 'string',
		'null' => true,
		'default' => null,
		'length' => (int) 127,
		'collate' => 'utf8_general_ci',
		'charset' => 'utf8'
	),
	'publish_time' => array(
		'type' => 'timestamp',
		'null' => true,
		'default' => null,
		'length' => null
	),
	'orig_date' => array(
		'type' => 'date',
		'null' => true,
		'default' => null,
		'length' => null
	),
	'orig_time' => array(
		'type' => 'time',
		'null' => true,
		'default' => null,
		'length' => null
	),
	'status' => array(
		'type' => 'tinyinteger',
		'null' => true,
		'default' => '1',
		'length' => (int) 4,
		'unsigned' => false
	)
)
$config = '_cake_model_'
$settings = array(
	'engine' => 'File',
	'prefix' => 'myapp_cake_model_',
	'path' => '/home/sites/site_91rp/app/tmp/cache/models/',
	'serialize' => true,
	'duration' => (int) 10,
	'lock' => true,
	'isWindows' => false,
	'mask' => (int) 436,
	'probability' => (int) 100,
	'groups' => array()
)
$success = false

Cache::write() - CORE/Cake/Cache/Cache.php, line 327
DataSource::_cacheDescription() - CORE/Cake/Model/Datasource/DataSource.php, line 310
Mysql::describe() - CORE/Cake/Model/Datasource/Database/Mysql.php, line 383
Model::schema() - CORE/Cake/Model/Model.php, line 1397
Model::getColumnType() - CORE/Cake/Model/Model.php, line 1438
DboSource::_parseKey() - CORE/Cake/Model/Datasource/DboSource.php, line 2944
DboSource::conditionKeysToString() - CORE/Cake/Model/Datasource/DboSource.php, line 2890
DboSource::conditions() - CORE/Cake/Model/Datasource/DboSource.php, line 2771
DboSource::buildStatement() - CORE/Cake/Model/Datasource/DboSource.php, line 2053
DboSource::buildAssociationQuery() - CORE/Cake/Model/Datasource/DboSource.php, line 1771
DboSource::read() - CORE/Cake/Model/Datasource/DboSource.php, line 1224
Model::_readDataSource() - CORE/Cake/Model/Model.php, line 3053
Model::find() - CORE/Cake/Model/Model.php, line 3025
NewsController::detail() - APP/Controller/NewsController.php, line 54
ReflectionMethod::invokeArgs() - [internal], line ??
Controller::invokeAction() - CORE/Cake/Controller/Controller.php, line 499
Dispatcher::_invoke() - CORE/Cake/Routing/Dispatcher.php, line 193

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中國版巴塞爾協(xié)議III對房地產(chǎn)貸款影響大,銀行讓利房貸一族或添動力

2024-01-12 09:00:03 來源：網(wǎng)絡(luò)

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近日，中國版巴塞爾協(xié)議III初步面世，40萬字征求意見稿中不少要點值得關(guān)注。在重點調(diào)整的風(fēng)險權(quán)重方面，將影響銀行的房地產(chǎn)貸款結(jié)構(gòu)。

相比2012年6月8日開始試行的《商業(yè)銀行資本管理辦法(試行)》(下稱《試行辦法》)，銀保監(jiān)會、央行最新聯(lián)合發(fā)布的《商業(yè)銀行資本管理辦法(征求意見稿)》(下稱《辦法》)新增了房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)風(fēng)險暴露，總體上風(fēng)險權(quán)重上升，但個人按揭貸款的風(fēng)險權(quán)重實質(zhì)性降低，整體要求更為細(xì)化。比如，針對房地產(chǎn)風(fēng)險暴露中的抵押貸款，文件依據(jù)房產(chǎn)類型、還款來源、貸款價值比(LTV)，設(shè)置了多檔風(fēng)險權(quán)重。

不少機(jī)構(gòu)指出，接下來開發(fā)貸占比較高的銀行將會消耗更多資本；相比之下，新規(guī)更利好個人按揭貸款占比較大的銀行。有銀行業(yè)內(nèi)人士對記者表示，新規(guī)與當(dāng)下房地產(chǎn)環(huán)境較為契合，合規(guī)成本將間接驅(qū)動地產(chǎn)行業(yè)控供給、去庫存，對銀行進(jìn)一步讓利購房者可能也有推動作用。

上海金融與發(fā)展實驗室主任曾剛認(rèn)為，結(jié)合《辦法》出臺背景，新規(guī)結(jié)合我國國情重點關(guān)注房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)貸、地方政府債相關(guān)業(yè)務(wù)資本計提規(guī)則，體現(xiàn)了提高監(jiān)管規(guī)制與我國國情適配性的目標(biāo)。從國際視角來看，《辦法》對房地產(chǎn)領(lǐng)域風(fēng)險暴露的要求并未收緊，短期內(nèi)影響不大，但不排除部分銀行因為業(yè)務(wù)結(jié)構(gòu)原因受到影響，后續(xù)資本充足率承壓較大的銀行會調(diào)整資產(chǎn)結(jié)構(gòu)。

根據(jù)央行數(shù)據(jù)，截至2022年末，金融機(jī)構(gòu)人民幣房地產(chǎn)貸款余額為53.16萬億元，占金融機(jī)構(gòu)人民幣各項貸款余額約25%，無疑是我國銀行業(yè)最主要的資產(chǎn)類型之一，其中主要包括房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)貸款和個人住房貸款。

央行在公告中提到的5大重點修訂內(nèi)容之一，即全面修訂風(fēng)險加權(quán)資產(chǎn)計量規(guī)則，包括信用風(fēng)險權(quán)重法和內(nèi)部評級法、市場風(fēng)險標(biāo)準(zhǔn)法和內(nèi)模法以及操作風(fēng)險標(biāo)準(zhǔn)法，提升資本計量的風(fēng)險敏感性。其中，信用風(fēng)險是銀行經(jīng)營過程中的最主要風(fēng)險，據(jù)普華永道部分上市銀行的樣本數(shù)據(jù)分析，信用風(fēng)險加權(quán)資產(chǎn)占銀行風(fēng)險加權(quán)資產(chǎn)的比例約92%-94%，而權(quán)重法則是多數(shù)銀行采用的信用風(fēng)險計量方法，也是此次改革的重點，具體包括優(yōu)化風(fēng)險暴露分類標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，增加風(fēng)險驅(qū)動因子，細(xì)化風(fēng)險權(quán)重。

以房地產(chǎn)領(lǐng)域為例，2012年《試行辦法》規(guī)定，房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)債權(quán)的風(fēng)險權(quán)重為100%；個人住房抵押貸款風(fēng)險權(quán)重為50%；對已抵押房產(chǎn)，在購房人沒有全部歸還貸款前，商業(yè)銀行以再評估后的凈值為抵押追加貸款的，追加的部分風(fēng)險權(quán)重為150%。

在《辦法》征求意見中，房地產(chǎn)風(fēng)險權(quán)重被進(jìn)一步劃分為房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)風(fēng)險暴露和房地產(chǎn)抵押風(fēng)險暴露，后者包括居住用房地產(chǎn)和商用房地產(chǎn)風(fēng)險暴露。另根據(jù)《辦法》按照業(yè)務(wù)規(guī)模和風(fēng)險差異對國內(nèi)商業(yè)銀行的三檔劃分，各檔銀行的權(quán)重法計量規(guī)則各有不同，相關(guān)規(guī)則疊加更為復(fù)雜(其中第三檔銀行使用簡化規(guī)則計量信用風(fēng)險加權(quán)資產(chǎn)，僅對個人住房抵押貸款提出明確要求)。

以對標(biāo)國際版巴塞爾協(xié)議III的第一檔銀行為例，除了對符合審慎要求的房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)風(fēng)險暴露維持風(fēng)險權(quán)重100%，《辦法》新增了其他房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)風(fēng)險暴露，并將風(fēng)險權(quán)重提高至150%。其中，符合審慎要求的房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)風(fēng)險暴露的關(guān)鍵條件在于項目資本金，即項目資本金比例為30%(含)以上，其中保障性住房開發(fā)項目資本金比例為25%(含)以上，或與債務(wù)人約定按房地產(chǎn)銷售進(jìn)度分批分期歸還貸款本息，本金償還比例超過50%。對于第二檔銀行，房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)貸款的風(fēng)險加權(quán)資產(chǎn)計量規(guī)則與第一檔銀行相同。

根據(jù)《國務(wù)院關(guān)于調(diào)整和完善固定資產(chǎn)投資項目資本金制度的通知》，我國對保障性住房和普通商品住房項目要求為20%(含)以上，其他項目為25%(含)以上。普華永道金融業(yè)合伙人陶欣及資本和風(fēng)險管理專家團(tuán)隊在報告中指出，《辦法》中審慎房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)貸款的要求高于上述規(guī)定，預(yù)計商業(yè)銀行部分存量的房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)貸款風(fēng)險暴露后續(xù)將采用150%的風(fēng)險權(quán)重。

有銀行業(yè)人士對記者表示，在資本占用提升壓力下，《辦法》實施后可能對開發(fā)貸定價產(chǎn)生一定影響。該人士分析，商業(yè)銀行將主要通過提高開發(fā)貸價格或減少貸款量來彌補(資本占用成本)，面對項目也會擇優(yōu)選擇，從而對地產(chǎn)供給端帶來一定影響。

曾剛也指出，在新監(jiān)管規(guī)制下，銀行的資本管理和風(fēng)險管理策略將會發(fā)生調(diào)整，進(jìn)而對其資產(chǎn)結(jié)構(gòu)產(chǎn)生影響，如房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)貸占比較高的銀行在資本充足率剛性約束下，相關(guān)業(yè)務(wù)規(guī)模及占比預(yù)計將會減少。

房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)與按揭貸款的風(fēng)險權(quán)重“一上一下”。按照《辦法》，居住用房地產(chǎn)風(fēng)險暴露(商業(yè)銀行對個人和企業(yè)以住房為抵押的債權(quán))、商用房地產(chǎn)風(fēng)險暴露(商業(yè)銀行對個人和企業(yè)以商業(yè)用房為抵押的債權(quán))，主要以還款實質(zhì)性依賴于房地產(chǎn)所產(chǎn)生的現(xiàn)金流、6個審慎要求、貸款價值比(LTV，貸款金額/抵押品價值)來細(xì)分風(fēng)險權(quán)重。

其中，還款實質(zhì)性依賴于房地產(chǎn)所產(chǎn)生的現(xiàn)金流的業(yè)務(wù)，風(fēng)險權(quán)重相對更高。陶欣認(rèn)為，該要求體現(xiàn)了監(jiān)管對第一、二還款來源高度相關(guān)業(yè)務(wù)的適度控制。

此外，貸款價值比是較為關(guān)鍵的量化指標(biāo)。以還款不實質(zhì)依賴于房地產(chǎn)所產(chǎn)生的現(xiàn)金流的居住用房地產(chǎn)風(fēng)險暴露為例，LTV低于80%的居住用房地產(chǎn)風(fēng)險暴露權(quán)重，相比《試行辦法》有所下降。這也意味著，只要首付比例高于20%，銀行對應(yīng)的按揭貸款風(fēng)險暴露的資本占用就可能降低。

考慮到目前首付比例通常不低于30%，因此LTV多在70%以內(nèi)；二手房按揭(已完工)風(fēng)險權(quán)重為45%，均較此前下降；但對于未完工的期房按揭，則風(fēng)險權(quán)重按照交易對手計量，最低權(quán)重為75%，相對現(xiàn)行法50%的風(fēng)險權(quán)重上升至少一半；而對于個人三套房等特殊情況，則根據(jù)抵押資產(chǎn)情況、抵押率有升有降。

“銀行普遍要求房地產(chǎn)類押品的抵質(zhì)押率不高于70%，考慮到大多數(shù)業(yè)務(wù)還款來源都是不實質(zhì)依賴于抵押房產(chǎn)產(chǎn)生的現(xiàn)金流，其他居住房抵押的風(fēng)險權(quán)重如果按照交易對手計算，預(yù)計將有所下降；居住用房抵押的風(fēng)險權(quán)重也整體呈下降趨勢?！碧招辣硎?，原則上對公房抵貸和個人房抵貸與現(xiàn)行法相比都能減少資本占用，但減少的程度與抵質(zhì)押率水平、居住用房占比、是否符合審慎要求等有關(guān)；這要求銀行做好押品的全流程管理和估值管理。

相比第一檔銀行，第二檔銀行不單獨區(qū)分房地產(chǎn)抵押貸款，總體延續(xù)現(xiàn)行計量規(guī)則，按照交易對手風(fēng)險權(quán)重計量。不少機(jī)構(gòu)指出，新的計量標(biāo)準(zhǔn)將有利于按揭業(yè)務(wù)占比較高的銀行，可以由此減少資本占用。上述銀行人士分析，與開發(fā)貸相反，考慮到資本消耗減少后有動力讓利于民，《辦法》關(guān)于居住用房地產(chǎn)風(fēng)險暴露的權(quán)重調(diào)整，將利好住房按揭市場，與當(dāng)前的房地產(chǎn)環(huán)境較為契合，對銀行和購房者來說均是利好?！?地產(chǎn))供給端收緊，限制開發(fā)；需求端放松，鼓勵發(fā)放按揭，對去庫存是很有幫助的。”他補充表示。

另外，考慮到近期“提前還貸潮”背景下存量房貸利率下調(diào)的呼聲較高，有業(yè)內(nèi)人士認(rèn)為，《辦法》或也能在激勵銀行調(diào)整房貸價格方面起到一定推進(jìn)作用。不過也有華東地區(qū)股份行內(nèi)部人士表示，從定價角度來看，目前各地針對相同條件的按揭利率基本保持一致，銀行自主空間不大。

“《辦法》對房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)貸的風(fēng)險權(quán)重設(shè)置，比市場預(yù)期要好，預(yù)計新規(guī)下各家銀行房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)貸款的資本占用上升低于預(yù)期，體現(xiàn)了目前宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境下，監(jiān)管支持穩(wěn)定房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)發(fā)展的趨勢。”陶欣團(tuán)隊在報告中指出。

除了權(quán)重法，在信用風(fēng)險新內(nèi)評法下，以合格商用房地產(chǎn)和居住用房地產(chǎn)為全額抵押覆蓋的業(yè)務(wù)，其違約損失率(LGD)最低可降低至20%，相比于當(dāng)前的35%有明顯下降。加上《辦法》將風(fēng)險加權(quán)資產(chǎn)底線調(diào)低至與國際版巴塞爾協(xié)議III要求一致的72.5%(現(xiàn)行80%)，不少機(jī)構(gòu)指出，這將為實施內(nèi)評法的銀行(6大行)在新規(guī)下獲得更多資本節(jié)省空間，也將進(jìn)一步激勵自愿實施內(nèi)評法銀行的合規(guī)申請。

總體來看，盡管合規(guī)成本難免提高，但考慮到小銀行計量規(guī)則較為寬松、大行采用內(nèi)評法，且有更多銀行有望籌備申請內(nèi)評法，加上距離預(yù)計實施時間(2024年1月1日)還較早，業(yè)內(nèi)對《辦法》帶來的整改壓力較為樂觀。曾剛強(qiáng)調(diào)，相比國際版巴塞爾協(xié)議III，《辦法》對地產(chǎn)領(lǐng)域的風(fēng)險權(quán)重要求整體并沒有明顯收緊，短期內(nèi)影響不大。

“盡管一些具體資產(chǎn)的風(fēng)險權(quán)重設(shè)置(如房地產(chǎn)按揭、地方政府債務(wù)等)，在征求意見期間或許還有討論、研究的空間。但總體上看，《辦法》是我國監(jiān)管部門立足于我國銀行業(yè)實際情況，并結(jié)合國際監(jiān)管改革最新進(jìn)展的重大成果，其最終實施，將有利于提升銀行風(fēng)險管理的精細(xì)化水平，促進(jìn)銀行差異化發(fā)展，更好地服務(wù)實體經(jīng)濟(jì)和區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)?！痹鴦偙硎?。

從銀行角度來看，有銀行從業(yè)人員認(rèn)為，更細(xì)致的分類方式或給銀行帶來較大的計量壓力，不過上述華東股份行人士表示，風(fēng)險加權(quán)資產(chǎn)的計量本就是較為專業(yè)的工作，不同資產(chǎn)分類和不同計量方法都較為復(fù)雜。他以零售貸款舉例稱，此前多數(shù)銀行并沒有逐筆分類，只是采用分池的方法將資產(chǎn)分到幾個“池子”中，之后進(jìn)行計量，此次細(xì)化分類后實質(zhì)是明確并簡化了計量方式，對不同機(jī)構(gòu)做出不同要求。

銀保監(jiān)會、央行有關(guān)部門負(fù)責(zé)人答記者問時表示，我國銀行數(shù)量多、差別大，為提高監(jiān)管匹配性，擬在資本要求、風(fēng)險加權(quán)資產(chǎn)計量、信息披露等要求上分類對待、區(qū)別處理，強(qiáng)調(diào)同質(zhì)同類銀行之間的分析比較。同時強(qiáng)調(diào)，差異化資本監(jiān)管不降低資本要求，在保持銀行業(yè)整體穩(wěn)健的前提下，激發(fā)中小銀行的金融活水作用，減輕銀行合規(guī)成本。

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Code Context


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Code Context

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		'bb7aa5fd41ad2b0db7898afa9fc7e14a' => '`news`',
		'992560ac9a44f29b82645d88692ef12e' => '`News`.`id`',
		'97d2848ba83c6661f919e182524945fa' => '`News`.`status`',
		'eb549c628995be93dfe45a0f43731683' => '`News`'
	),
	'fields' => array(
		'4ca138495f794fe05339b263ecc9c938' => array(
			(int) 0 => '`News`.*'
		)
	)
)
$config = '_cake_core_'
$settings = array(
	'engine' => 'File',
	'prefix' => 'myapp_cake_core_',
	'path' => '/home/sites/site_91rp/app/tmp/cache/persistent/',
	'serialize' => true,
	'duration' => (int) 10,
	'lock' => true,
	'isWindows' => false,
	'mask' => (int) 436,
	'probability' => (int) 100,
	'groups' => array()
)
$success = false

Cache::write() - CORE/Cake/Cache/Cache.php, line 327
DboSource::__destruct() - CORE/Cake/Model/Datasource/DboSource.php, line 3748
[main] - [internal], line ??